We have two nice PV jobs to get done before the snow flies. Timing is everything in the logistics of pulling the various parts together on the sites. In the past, its been a matter of placing an order with a couple of suppliers and the parts would show up in a reasonable amount of time. As this year marched on, I noticed the cupboard shelves for PV parts getting a bit thin.
The past two weeks I spent an inordinate amount of time emailing and finding alternate sources for the required parts. Some of the parts have a particular spec that affects another part's compatibility. So, it cascades though your parts list, if you change one spec in order to get the job done. All this adds stress to my job and it seems the suppliers have no remorse for the inconvenience.
My theory is that industry and corporations are hoarding cash to hedge any uncertainty in the future economy. They reduce their inventories, cut costs, and production so they don't spend as much money. This means they're not much into hiring either. Those reduced supplies trickle down to the distributors and me, the installer. The banks are the same way, reluctant to lend money while they are sitting on huge cash reserves.
No amount of stimulus will undo this mindset. If our economy is to proceed, big business must boost productivity and hire more personnel. Until that happens, our economy will just flounder along and the consumer will have no confidence to invest in solar or efficiency improvements into their lifestyles. Someone must make the move.
On the benefit side of our lousy economy, PV module prices have dropped dramatically over the past year or so. Last summer module prices were about $3.50 per watt. This year we are selling at $2.50 per watt. Part of this was a glut in supply caused by everyone jumping into the PV manufacturing business, especially the Chinese. On the other hand, the consumer pulled back on actual spending, even though interest in renewable energy is spreading through our country.
I appreciate you drawing from your experience and applying your observations insightfully to the larger picture. Another example of the manufacturing squeeze is suppliers passing along part of the manufacturing process to the purchaser - in our case components that used to come pre-assembled are now arriving as a collection of discrete parts that we have to put together. The item price stays the same but the cost of assembly shifts from them to us. I think about things like this while I wait in line at Wal-Mart. My time subsidizing their sparse checkout staff.
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